TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 01, 2020


***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area and has formed a large bearish move. Price has been up-trending but the recent bearish move is significant and has swung below the recent bullish channel support area, all suggesting that the uptrend may now be over.

Selling opportunities could exist around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the recent highs at 0.6565. A bearish move may find support around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6435, 0.6395 and 0.6340.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is moving within a weekly horizontal channel at 0.8300-0.9325.

Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8675, 0.8750, 0.8765 and 0.8785.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher. The EURUSD has formed a higher swing higher and is possible up-trending. Price has also formed a bullish channel. The moving averages confirm the upside – they are bullish and widening. EURUSD continues to be indecisive longer-term, suggesting that the current uptrend may be short-lived.

Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.0890. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.0985.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that GBPUSD could attempt a bearish move.

Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2550, 1.2515 and 1.2495. A bullish move could stall or reverse around 1.2610 and 1.2645.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD reversed around the bullish channel resistance area and is now finding support around the channel support area. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are starting to tighten though, suggesting that the uptrend may becoming to an end. NZDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.5980, 0.5995, 0.6075 and 0.6165.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly slashed it’s official rate to 0.25% (a record low). Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The country was already in recession before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bullish. Price has swung above the recent bearish channel resistance, suggesting that the downtrend could be over. The bearish moving averages confirm the weakening downside – they are starting to tighten. USDCAD is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could move higher.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.4000 and 1.3950. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.4115 and 1.4195.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. USDCHF is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the downside momentum may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9675 and 0.9720. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 0.9600.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the horizontal level at 107.35 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that USDJPY could move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 106.40 and 107.35.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bearish. Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lows – XAUUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the trend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1695 and 1718. A bearish move may find support around 1665 and 1643.

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