TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 30, 2020


***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. AUDUSD is clearly up-trending and has been moving higher. Price action has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that AUDUSD could soon attempt a bearish move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6465, 0.6435 and 0.6395. Price could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US unemployment claims figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways. EURGBP is moving within a weekly horizontal channel at 0.8300-0.9325.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8680, 0.8690, 0.8750, 0.8765, 0.8785, 0.8850.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official bank rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been finding resistance around 1.0890. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are currently bullish and steady, suggesting that the EURUSD could attempt a bullish move higher. Price is indecisive on higher time-frames also, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0735, 1.0810, 1.0890, 1.0920 and 1.0985. If EURUSD closes above 1.0890, price could attempt a move higher.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official bank rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC. A US unemployment claims figure will be announced at 1230 UTC.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has reversed around the bullish channel support area and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction may continue. GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2395, 1.2385 and 1.2305. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2495, 1.2515, 1.2550 and 1.2645.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

A US unemployment claims figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung above the recent consolidation area. The NZDUSD is up-trending – price action is showing a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6125 and 0.6075.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly slashed it’s official rate to 0.25% (a record low). Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The country was already in recession before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US unemployment claims figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. As also suggested, price has been finding support around 1.3860. The USDCAD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area, if price closes below the support at 1.3860 and around the horizontal levels at 1.3950, 1.4000 and 1.4020. USDCAD may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.3860 and the channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US unemployment claims figure will be announced at 1230 UTC today. A Canadian GDP figure will be released at the same time.

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