TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 28, 2020




***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – the AUDUSD is up-trending. Price is above a recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. The AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames and is currently in a retrace phase, suggesting that price could attempt a strong bearish move.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area, if price closes above the resistance at 0.6465 and around the horizontal levels at 0.6395, 0.6340 and 0.6295. AUDUSD could continue to find resistance around 0.6465.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. Australian CPI figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP continues to be very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Price is ranging on higher time-frames (0.8290-0.9360).

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8680, 0.8710, 0.8765 and 0.8785.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Just like EURGBP, the EURUSD is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price is also lacking trend direction on the higher time-frames, providing no clear indication where EURUSD could go next.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0735, 1.0855, 1.0890 and 1.0920.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD is looking indecisive. Recent price action has been bullish though and price has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a strong bearish move.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2385, 1.2305 and 1.2250. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2445, 1.2515, 1.2550 and 1.2645.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. NZDUSD has formed a horizontal channel at 0.5920-0.6075.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.6125.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly slashed it’s official rate to 0.25% (a record low). Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The country was already in recession before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Just like most other USD pairs, price is indecisive and is lacking clear trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. USDCAD is ranging between 1.4020 and 1.4115.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.4160, 1.4195 and 1.4245. A break to the downside may find support around 1.3995 and 1.3860.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The trend has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.9720. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.9800 and around the channel resistance area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY is indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal support at 107.00 and the horizontal resistance at 108.05. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Price is currently testing the range support area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the USDJPY may attempt a bearish break of the range support area.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Just like most Forex pairs, GOLD is ranging (1665-1738). The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

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