TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 28, 2020

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

Price has been bullish and has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – the AUDUSD is up-trending. Price is above a recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. The AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames and is currently in a retrace phase, suggesting that price could attempt a strong bearish move.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area, if price closes above the resistance at 0.6465 and around the horizontal levels at 0.6395, 0.6340 and 0.6295. AUDUSD could continue to find resistance around 0.6465.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1400 UTC today. Australian CPI figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP continues to be very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Price is ranging on higher time-frames (0.8290-0.9360).

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8680, 0.8710, 0.8765 and 0.8785.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

Just like EURGBP, the EURUSD is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price is also lacking trend direction on the higher time-frames, providing no clear indication where EURUSD could go next.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0735, 1.0855, 1.0890 and 1.0920.