TriumphFX Forex Analysis – AUD Pairs – April & May 2020


AUDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDCAD Daily Chart
AUDCAD 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last AUD chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower.

The daily chart continues to show a clear downtrend – price action is forming lower swing lows and lower swing highs. AUDCAD is currently in a retrace phase. The daily moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that price may attempt to swing to recent lows. AUDCAD is up-trending within a bullish channel on the 4 hour time-frame.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the daily trend resistance area, around the daily moving averages, around the 4 hour bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9015, 0.9025, 0.9140 and 0.9230. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the 4 hour bullish channel support area, around the 4 hour moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8750, 0.8475, 0.8390, 0.8310, 0.8275 and 0.8140.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

AUDCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDCHF Daily Chart
AUDCHF 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last AUD chart analysis, the AUDCHF has been bearish and has swung lower.

Price is clearly down-trending on the daily time-frame. AUDCHF has recently been very bearish and has formed a much lower swing low. Price is now in a retrace move. The daily moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the long-term trend could continue. The 4 hour RSI is becoming overbought, suggesting that AUDCHF could soon attempt a bearish move.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the daily moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6225, 0.6345, 0.6430, 0.6605, 0.6640 and 0.6860. A bearish move could find support around the dynamic support of the 4 hour moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.5600 and 0.5390.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

AUDJPY – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDJPY Daily Chart
AUDJPY 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last AUD chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish.

The AUDJPY is now clearly down-trending on the daily chart – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The daily moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside direction may continue. Price is currently forming higher swing highs and higher swing lows on the 4 hour chart.

Selling opportunities could exist around the 61.8% Fib retrace area, around the dynamic resistance of the daily moving averages, around the daily trend resistance area, if the AUDJPY closes below the 4 hour trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 70.30, 71.40, 71.85, 72.40, 74.25, and 76.40. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the 4 hour moving averages, around the 4 hour trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 60.70, 62.75, 64.95 and 67.30.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

AUDNZD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts 

AUDNZD Daily Chart
AUDNZD 4 Hourly Chart

AUDNZD broke to the downside of the recent range but continues to be indecisive. Price is now moving within a much larger range at 1.0035-1.1310 (based on the weekly time-frame). AUDNZD is looking choppy and indecisive on both the daily and 4 hourly time-frames. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the daily and 4 hourly moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly slashed it’s official rate to 0.25% (a record low). Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The country was already in recession before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

AUDUSD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts 

AUDUSD Daily Chart
AUDUSD 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last AUD chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bearish and has moved lower.

Just like other AUD pairs, the AUDUSD is clearly down-trending on the daily time-frame. Price is currently in a retrace move. The daily moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move lower. The AUDUSD has formed higher swing highs and lows on the 4 hour time-frame.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the 61.8% Fib retrace level, around the bearish daily moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6455, 0.6665, 0.6755 and 0.7015. A bearish move may find support around the 4 hour trend support area, around the 4 hour moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6190, 0.5990, 0.5745 and 0.5555.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

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