TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 09, 2020


***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher. AUDUSD is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that price could start up-trending. AUDUSD has formed a bullish channel. Price continues to down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that AUDUSD could attempt a bearish move.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6205, 0.6125 and 0.5985. A bullish move could find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve speech at 1400 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the range support area. EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price is ranging and is forming a horizontal channel at 0.8740-0.8855. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8905, 0.8970 and 0.9055.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

The ECB will released monetary policy meeting minutes at 1130 UTC today.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has been finding support around the moving averages (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0655, 1.0755, 1.0775, 1.0825, 1.0915 and 1.1030.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The ECB will released monetary policy meeting minutes at 1130 UTC today. A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC. This is followed by a Federal Reserve speech at 1400 UTC.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GBPUSD has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive. GBPUSD is moving within both a bearish channel and a horizontal channel at 1.2195-1.2475. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of both channels and if price closes out of either channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve speech at 1400 UTC.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD is indecisive. Recent price action has been bullish though and the moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the NZDUSD could move higher.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.5945, 0.5850 and 0.5785. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6030 and 0.6065.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve speech at 1400 UTC.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around 1.4060. The USDCAD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may swing lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.4060, 1.4100, 1.4255 and 1.4330. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows and horizontal support at 1.3945.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian employment and unemployment figures will be released at the same time. A Federal Reserve speech is scheduled for 1400 UTC.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9500, 0.9600, 0.9685, 0.9745, 0.9795, 0.9835 and 0.9890.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve speech at 1400 UTC.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around the horizontal support at 108.60. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 107.05, 108.60, 109.20, 109.50, 109.85 and 110.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a Federal Reserve speech at 1400 UTC.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, confirming the market indecision. GOLD is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that price could swing higher.

Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1637 and 1596.

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