TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 08, 2020


***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found resistance around 0.6205. Price has seen been retracing some of the recent bullish move. The AUDUSD has become indecisive and is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.5985 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6205. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the AUDUSD may attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.5875 and 0.5715.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been finding resistance around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and move sideways. The EURGBP is ranging between 0.8740 and 0.8855. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.8905, 0.8970, 0.9055 and 0.9235.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around 1.0920. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear future price direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0755, 1.0775, 1.0825, 1.0920, 1.1030 and 1.1135.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been slightly bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to move within a bearish channel but also be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the GBPUSD could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1970, 1.2195, 1.2370 and 1.2475. If price closes below 1.2195, the GBPUSD could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack track direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that NZDUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.5785, 0.5850,0.6005, 0.6030 and 0.6065.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD was bearish and then found support around 1.3945. Price is now being rejected at the shorter-term moving average (as also suggested). USDCAD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price could attempt to swing lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.4060, 1.4100, 1.4255 and 1.4330. An attempt to swing lower could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.3945.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels; 0.9600, 0.9745, 0.9795 and 0.9835.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around 108.60. USDJPY is indecisive and lacking trend momentum.

Trading opportunities may exist the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 107.05, 108.60, 109.20, 109.50, 109.85 and 110.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average and trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. GOLD is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the upside direction may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1637, 1596 and 1575. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1666.

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