TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 07, 2020




***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price broke to the upside of the tight bearish channel. AUDUSD has since been bullish and has been moving higher. Price has swung above a number of resistance levels, suggesting that AUDUSD could start up-trending. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways though, signalling potential market indecision.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support), if price closes above the highs at 0.6205 and around the previous resistance levels at 0.6155 and 0.6115. Price could find resistance around 0.6205.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The RBA will announce the official cash rate and and release a rate statement tomorrow at 0430 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has found resistance around 0.8855 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is currently moving sideways and has started ranging between 0.8740 and 0.8855 (as also suggested). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price continues to move within a bearish channel, suggesting that EURGBP may attempt a move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.8905, 0.8970 and 0.9055. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average. Price has since been bullish and has swung above the bearish channel resistance area. EURUSD has also swung above the moving averages, signalling that the recent downtrend has come to an end. Higher time-frames are showing market indecision, suggesting that the 1 hour time-frame could also become indecisive.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0755, 1.0775, 1.0825, 1.0920, 1.1030 and 1.1135.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and then reversed around the bearish channel support area (as all suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is looking indecisive but is moving within a slight bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that downside direction may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.2475. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2195, 1.1970 and 1.1695.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish. The NZDUSD has swung above recent resistance levels but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. If price close above 0.6065, the NZDUSD could attempt a bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.5785, 0.5850, 0.5975, 0.6030 and 0.6065.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. The USDCAD has closed below the recent consolidation area and price action has formed a trend resistance, all suggesting that price may move lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening – confirming the potential downside.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.4060, 1.4255 and 1.4330. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.3945.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

The BOC will release a business outlook survey at 1430 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bearish and has swung lower. Price is now finding support around the longer-term moving average. The USDCHF is looking indecisive. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the USDCHF could move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9500, 0.9600, 0.9685, 0.9745, 0.9795, 0.9835 and 0.9890.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY is above a recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that price may start up-trending.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.60 and 107.05. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 109.50, 109.85, 110.25 and 111.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher. GOLD is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential trend.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1637, 1596 and 1575. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1666.

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