TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 06, 2020


***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and bearish channel resistance area. As also suggested, price then found support around the bearish channel support area. The AUDUSD continues to downtrend within a tight bearish channel. Price is currently in a retrace phase and is finding resistance around the channel resistance area. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue. The bearish channel is very tight though, suggesting that an upside break-out may be imminent.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6115, 0.6155 and 0.6205. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.5985 and 0.5875.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The RBA will announce the official cash rate and and release a rate statement tomorrow at 0430 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been finding resistance around 0.8865 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending within a large bearish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and are starting to move sideways, suggesting potential market indecision. The EURGBP could start range between 0.8740 and 0.8855.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8855, 0.8905, 0.8970 and 0.9050. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent lows at 0.8740.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and has been finding support around the bearish channel support area. The EURUSD is clearly down-trending and is moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1030 and 1.1135. A bearish move may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.0775, 1.0755 and 1.0655.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has broken to the downside of the recent range consolidation. The GBPUSD is below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price could start down-trending. The GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential downside move. Price action has formed a bearish channel.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous range support area at 1.2305, around the bearish channel resistance and around the horizontal resistance at 1.2475. A bearish move could find support around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2210 and 1.1970.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD was bearish and moved lower. Price is now in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside direction may continue. NZDUSD is looking indecisive though, suggesting that price may start moving sideways. NZDUSD may start ranging between 0.5850 and 0.5975.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.5600, 0.5785, 0.5850, 0.5975, 0.6030, 0.6065 and 0.6120.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been reversing around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and move sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways and are tight – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.3945 and 1.3745. A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.4330, 1.4540 and 1.4660.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

The BOC will release a business outlook survey at 1430 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price is up-trending within a bullish. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction may continue. USDCHF is down-trending on higher time-frames and is currently in a retrace move, suggesting that price may become bearish and attempt a move lower.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9685. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9795, 0.9835 and 0.9890.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, USDJPY closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all suggesting that USDJPY could start up-trending.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous range resistance at 108.60. A bullish move could find resistance around 109.50, 109.85, 110.25 and 111.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside direction may continue. GOLD is up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential upside move.

Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, if price closes above 1637 and around the horizontal levels at 1596 and 1575. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 1637.

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