TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 03, 2020


***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around 0.6020. AUDUSD has been bearish and has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows and also a tight bearish channel. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential downside. AUDUSD could start ranging between 0.6020 and 0.6205 though – price action is forming a potential horizontal channel.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.6205. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6020, 0.5875, 0.5715 and 0.5670.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is moving within a large bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside direction may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8865, 0.8905, 0.8970 and 0.9055.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been bearish and has swung lower. Price action has formed a bearish channel and price has recently found support around the channel support area. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the current downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0880, 1.0965, 1.1030 and 1.1135. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.0755 and 1.0655.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. GBPUSD is moving within a tight horizontal channel at 1.2305-1.2475.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.1970.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average. The NZDUSD is looking indecisive but is also a little bearish. The moving averages confirm the slight downside – they are tight but bearish. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the NZDUSD could attempt a move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.5495, 0.5600, 0.5785, 0.5975, 0.6060, 0.6115 and 0.6155.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is struggling to swing lower (as also suggested) and is currently moving sideways. Price is forming a horizontal channel at 1.4060-1.4255. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.3945, 1.3745 and around the bearish channel support area. A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.4330, 1.4540 and 1.4660.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bullish and has swung higher. Price action has formed a tight bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the upside momentum could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9685, 0.9600 and 0.9500. A bullish move could find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9535 and 0.9890.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Just like other USD pairs, the USDJPY has become indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and also moving sideways. Price is ranging between the recent swing low at 107.05 and the recent swing high at 108.60.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 109.45, 109.85, 110.25 and 111.60. A break to the downside may find support around 105.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

US non-farm employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish. GOLD is looking indecisive again. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1538, 1575, 1595 and 1637.

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