TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 01, 2020




***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found support around the bullish channel support area. As also suggested, price has since been bearish. The AUDUSD is now looking indecisive and is lacking price direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.6020 and the recent swing high at 0.6205. On higher time-frames, the AUDUSD is down-trending, suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the previous bullish channel support area, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.5875, 0.5715 and 0.5550. A break to the upside could find resistance around the previous bullish channel resistance area and the horizontal levels at 0.6465 and 0.6535.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now in a retrace move and is finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average (as also suggested). The EURGBP is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is indecisive on higher time-frames, suggesting that the EURGBP may become indecisive on the 1 hour time-frame also.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8970, 0.9055 and 0.9235. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent lows at 0.8825.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways and continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and also moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. The EURUSD is indecisive on higher time-frames also, providing no clear market direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0655, 1.0755, 1.0880, 1.0950, 1.1135, 1.1225 and 1.1365.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Just like other FX pairs, the GBPUSD has become indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages are tightening but are still bullish. Price is ranging between 1.2305 and 1.2475. The current range may be interpreted as a retrace move, suggesting that the GBPUSD may attempt to swing higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1970 and 1.1695.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD has been bearish. Price was up-trending within a bullish channel but has swung below the channel support area. NZDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move lower. NZDUSD is currently indecisive though. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous bullish channel support area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6060, 0.6115 and 0.6155. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.5910, 0.5785 and 0.5600.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD reversed around the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is struggling to swing lower and has recently been bullish (as also suggested). The moving averages are moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the bearish channel support and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.3685, 1.3745, 1.3945, 1.4060, 1.4330, 1.4540 and 1.4660.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the trend resistance area. Just like other USD pairs, USDCHF is starting to look a little indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9400, 0.9500, 0.9720, 0.9835 and 0.9890.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the 38.2& Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDJPY has now become indecisive, just like other USD pairs. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 107.25 and the recent reversal at 108.60.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 109.45, 109.85, 110.25 and 111.60. A break to the downside may find support at 105.25 and 103.35.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be released at 1215 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1400 UTC.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD found support around the range support area. Price has since swung below the consolidation support area, suggesting that GOLD could attempt to start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and are widening.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1595, 1637 and 1666. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1564, 1538 and 1467.

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/