TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 31, 2020


***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been rejected at the shorter-term moving average and bullish channel support area. AUDUSD continues to be bullish and uptrend within 2 bullish channels. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames and is currently in a retrace phase, suggesting that AUDUSD may become bearish and attempt a move to recent lows.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6020, 0.5875, 0.5715 and 0.5550. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around both channel resistance areas.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price was rejected at the horizontal support at 0.8865 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now coming off the shorter-term moving average (as also suggested). EURGBP is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction could continue. Price is looking indecisive on higher time-frames, suggesting that the current direction could become sideways.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9055, 0.9235 and 0.9365. EURGBP could continue to find support around 0.8865.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has become indecisive. Price was up-trending but is now ranging between the horizontal support at 1.0975 and the recent swing high at 1.1135. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1225, 1.1365 and 1.1470. A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.0880, 1.0755 and 1.0655.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. On higher time-frames, price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase, suggesting that GBPUSD could become bearish and attempt to swing lower.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.1970 and 1.1695. An attempt to swing higher could find resistance and even reverse around the shorter-term moving average and recent swing high at 1.2475.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the bullish channel support area. The NZDUSD has since been bearish (as also suggested) and is attempting a move below the bullish channel support area. Price has been up-trending but is becoming more bearish. The NZDUSD is already down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that there may be a move lower.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the shorter-term moving average, around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel and around the horizontal levels at 0.6060, 0.6115 and 0.6155. A bearish move may find support around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 0.5910, 0.5785 and 0.5600.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price found resistance around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since moved higher. The USDCAD is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling that price could struggle to swing lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.4540 and 1.4660. A bearish move could find support around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.4155, 1.3945 and 1.3745.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase (just like other USD pairs). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the USDCHF may swing lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9720, 0.9835 and 0.9890. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9500, 0.9400 and 0.9325.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish. The USDJPY has not been forming lower swing lows and highs like other USD pairs, suggesting that price is not yet down-trending or in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous support levels at 109.45, 109.85 and 110.25. A bearish move could find support around 107.25 and 105.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

A US consumer confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to move sideways and be indecisive. Price action has formed a tight range at 1595-1637. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1666 and 1700. A break to the downside could find support around 1564, 1538 and 1467.

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