TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 30, 2020


 

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

 

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Time-Frame

The AUDUSD has been bullish and has formed a clear uptrend – price action has formed clear higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price has also formed 2 bullish channels. The moving averages confirm the upside momentum – they are bullish and steady. On higher time-frames, the AUDUSD is in a retrace move of a downtrend, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6020, 0.5875, 0.5715 and 0.5550. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around both bullish channel resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.6465, 0.6535 and 0.6660.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Time-Frame

Price has been bearish. EURGBP has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9050, 0.9235 and 0.9365. A bearish move may find support around 0.8865.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Time-Frame

EURUSD is up-trending. The moving averages signal that the uptrend could continue – they are bullish and widening. On the higher time-frames, price is looking indecisive, suggesting that the uptrend could start lacking momentum.

Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0980, 1.0880, 1.0755 and 1.0655. EURUSD could find resistance around 1.1135, 1.1225, 1.1365 and 1.1470.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Time-Frame

The GBPUSD has been bullish. Price action has formed some higher swing highs and lows, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. The GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may become bearish and move lower.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1970 and 1.1695. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.2475 and 1.3190.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Time-Frame

Just like other ***USD pairs, NZDUSD has been bullish and up-trending. Price action has clearly been up-trending and has formed 2 bullish channels, similarly to AUDUSD. Price is down-trending longer-term and is currently in a retrace phase on higher time-frames and NZDUSD is nearing a number of resistance levels, all suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.5910, 0.5785, 0.5600 and 0.5495. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around either bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6115, 0.6155, 0.6210, 0.6245, 0.6325 and 0.6415.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A New Zealand business confidence figure will be released at 0000 UTC.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Time-Frame

Price has been down-trending and has formed a clear bearish channel. The USDCAD has recently come off the channel support area. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.4155, 1.4540 and 1.4660. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3945, 1.3745, 1.3685 and 1.3525.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Time-Frame

The USDCHF has also been bearish. Price is down-trending – USDCHF has formed clear lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9720, 0.9835 and 0.9890. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9400, 0.9325 and 0.9240.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Time-Frame

Just like USDCAD and USDCHF, USDJPY has been bearish. Price action has not been forming lower swing lows and highs though, suggesting that the USDJPY is not yet down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction may continue though.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 109.45, 109.85, 110.25 and 111.60. A bearish move may find support around 105.25 and 103.35.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Time-Frame

Price has become indecisive and is moving sideways. Price action has formed a tight range at 1595-1637. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1666 and 1700. A break to the downside could find support around 1564, 1538 and 1467.

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