TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 18, 2020


 

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY). Stock markets down***

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD retraced a little and has since been bearish and continues to move lower. Price is clearly down-trending and has been in a free-fall since 0.6660. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue. The AUDUSD is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting a bullish move could be due – price could retrace before attempting a move lower.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6020 and 0.6250.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP retraced a little and has since swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside direction may continue. The EURGBP is nearing key resistance on higher time-frames (0.9325), suggesting that a bearish move may be due.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9065 and 0.9130.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price broke to the downside of the range and has since been finding support around 1.0965. The EURUSD is now showing a clear downtrend – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The EURUSD has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1065 and 1.1225. A bearish move could stall or reverse around 1.0965 and the bearish channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has been in a free-fall since the highs at 1.3190. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue. Price is at a key support area on higher time-frames, suggesting that the GBPUSD may attempt a bullish move.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2125 and 1.2410.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. Price is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.5985 and 0.6120. NZDUSD could find support around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A New Zealand GDP figure will be announced at 2145 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDCAD has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 1.3990.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bullish and found resistance around the bullish channel resistance area. USDCHF is clearly up-trending and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Price is around a higher time-frame resistance area, suggesting that USDCHF could attempt a bearish move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9555, 0.9400 and 0.9325. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 0.9645 and the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed off the shorter-term moving average and trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDJPY is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 105.25. A bullish move may find resistance around 108.55 and 110.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been down-trending and is currently retracing. The retrace move has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1538, 1564 and 1595. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support are and around the horizontal support levels at 1467 and 1455.

 

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