TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 17, 2020


 

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY). Stock markets down***

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The AUDUSD is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Markets seem to have hit bottoms and AUDUSD is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting that a bullish retrace move may be due.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6250 and 0.6305.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside could continue. The EURGBP has been finding resistance around 0.9130, signalling that price could start retracing before attempting a move higher.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, if price closes above 0.9130 and around the horizontal level at 0.8865. The EURGBP could continue to find resistance around 0.9130.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

A German economic sentiment figure will be announced at 1000 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed around 1.1220. Price continues to currently be indecisive and range (1.1065-1.1225). The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the EURUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.0965. A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.1365 and 1.1470.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A German economic sentiment figure will be announced at 1000 UTC today. US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bearish and has moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue. Markets are forming potential bottoms though, suggesting that GBPUSD could be due a bullish move before attempting to move lower.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2410 and 1.2745.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. NZDUSD has been down-trending but is currently struggling to swing lower – price is finding support. NZDUSD has become indecisive and is ranging between the recent lows at 0.5985 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6120. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6155, 0.6210 and 0.6245. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDCAD is up-trending. Price has swung above the recent range consolidation area, suggesting that the upside direction could continue – there is clear bullish momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and steady.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3990 and 1.3745.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF has been bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all suggesting a potential uptrend.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9400 and 0.9325. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.9555 and the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

 

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/