TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 16, 2020


 

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY). Stock markets down***

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD has been very bearish. Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction could continue. AUDUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the trend could continue. Price is looking a little over-extended, suggesting that price could attempt a bullish retrace move before attempting to swing lower.

Opportunities to go short may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6305, 0.6455 and 0.6535.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

Australian monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP is up-trending. Price has been bullish and continues to climb higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue. EURGBP is indecisive on higher time-frames, signalling that price may also become indecisive on choppy on the 1 hour time-frames. Price is starting to become overbought, suggesting that a bearish retrace move may be due.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8865 and 0.8720.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price had been retracing some of a recent bullish move but is now looking indecisive. EURUSD has become choppy and is ranging between 1.1065 and 1.1220. The moving averages are bearish and steady though, signalling that price could move lower. Higher time-frames are very bullish though, suggesting that price could move higher – hence the indecisive.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.1365 and 1.1470. A break to the downside could find support around 1.0965.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other pairs against the US Dollar, GBPUSD has been bearish and has been weakening. Price action has formed a clear swing lower and has swung below a number of key support levels, all suggesting that the GBPUSD may start down-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and steady.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2515, 1.2745 and 1.2775. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 1.2260.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by coronavirus. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.25%. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD has been bearish. Price has swung below a number of key support levels, signalling that the NZDUSD could start down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential further downside. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that NZDUSD could move lower. Price is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that a bullish move could be due.

Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6155 and 0.6210. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 0.5985.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDCAD has been up-trending but is currently moving sideways and ranging. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3740 and the recent highs at 1.3990. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that USDCAD may move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.3685, 1.3525 and 1.3455.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rates to help boost the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The current rate is now 0.75%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Recent price action has been bullish, but overall USDCHF is looking indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling potential upside. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames and is currently in a retrace phase, suggesting that the USDCHF could swing lower.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 0.9555. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.9325 and 0.9240.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price action has been forming higher swing highs and higher swing lows – USDJPY is up-trending. The moving averages confirm the current upside direction – they are bullish and steady. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the current bullish momentum may quickly reverse and become bearish.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 103.35 and 102.10. A bullish move may find resistance or even reverse around 108.55 and 110.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Price has moved below some key support levels on higher time-frames, also suggesting that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1564 and 1595. GOLD could find support around the recent lows at 1512.

 

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