TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 06, 2020


 

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – money fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY). Stock markets down***

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around 0.6635. As also suggested, AUDUSD has just reversed off the longer-term moving average. Price is up-trending but is currently ranging between the horizontal support at 0.6580 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6635 – AUDUSD is forming a horizontal channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price may break to the upside of the channel.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of  the channel (break-out trade). Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6555 and 0.6510. A bullish move may find resistance around 0.6700 and 0.6730.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around the moving averages (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is currently in a retrace phase after forming a large bullish move. The moving averages have crossed bearish and price is looking a little indecisive, suggesting that the EURGBP could struggle to swing higher. Price is also indecisive and is ranging on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.8635, 0.8685 and 0.8735. EURGBP could start ranging between 0.8635 and 0.8685.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD closed above the range resistance area and has since moved higher. Price was consolidating but is now up-trending again. EURUSD has closed above a key channel resistance on higher time-frames, suggesting that the general upside direction may continue. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and steady. Price action has also formed a potential bullish channel.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.185, 1.1110 and 1.1045. A bullish move may find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD has continued to be bullish and move higher. Price has been down-trending but the current bullish move is significant. GBPUSD has swung above the bearish trend resistance area, signalling that the downtrend could be over. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening.

Buying opportunities may exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2860 and 1.2835. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3015, 1.3040 and 1.3055.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction may continue. The NZDUSD continues to look a little indecisive.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6355, 0.6325 and 0.6265. A bullish move may find resistance around 0.6380.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.3425. The USDCAD is looking indecisive and is lacking market direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3305, 1.3315, 1.3330, 1.3425 and 1.3455.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has followed the US and has cut the interest rate by 50 base points. The current rate is now 1.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears de-escalate, the BOC could increase rates again.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. Canadian employment change, unemployment rate and trade balance figures will be released at the same time.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF closed below the horizontal level at 0.9540 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. The USDCHF is starting to look over-extended on higher time-frames, signalling that a bullish move may be due.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9540 and 0.9605.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been bearish and has moved lower. Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 107.05, 107.70 and 108.55.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

US non-farm employment change, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

 

 

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