TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 05, 2020


 

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – money fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY). Stock markets down***

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bullish and has been finding resistance around 0.6630. Price is up-trending but is currently struggling to swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening though, suggesting that the upside direction could continue. The AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames and is currently in a retrace phase, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6585, 0.6555 and 0.6515. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6630, 0.6665 and 0.6750.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

An Australian retail sales figure will be announced at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has reversed around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price recently formed a large bullish move and is now in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening, suggesting that the EURGBP may struggle to swing higher. Price is ranging on higher time-frames, signalling market indecision.

Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8685 and 0.8735.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1700 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range support area. The EURUSD is currently in a retrace phase after a strong bullish move. Price is currently ranging between the horizontal support at 1.1110 and the recent highs at 1.1185. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the horizontal levels at 1.1045 and 1.0965.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has been down-trending longer-term. Price is currently in a retrace phase. GBPUSD has formed a number of key support areas and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price may struggle to swing lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the 61.8% Fib level and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3015, 1.3040 and 1.3055. A bearish move may find support around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2855, 1.2835, 1.2775 and 1.2745.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1700 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average. Price has been quiet but slightly bullish. NZDUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and widening though, suggesting that price could move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6195, 0.6330, 0.6355 and 0.6380.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDCAD has been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is looking indecisive and is lacking clear market direction. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3265, 1.3305, 1.3315, 1.3425 and 1.3455.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1745 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish. USDCHF is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Recent price action has been a little choppy though and the USDCHF is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, all suggesting that price could attempt a bullish move before swinging lower.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, if price closes below 0.9540 and around the horizontal levels at 0.9605, 0.9625 and 0.9685. A bearish move could find support and even reverse around 0.9540.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDJPY is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Price action has formed a potential bearish channel.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 107.70, 108.55 and 109.65. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 107.05 and around the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1562, 1574, 1585, 1610, 1647, 1655 and 1687.

 

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