TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 04, 2020


 

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – money fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY). Stock markets down***

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, downside momentum is weakening – price has been bullish. AUDUSD is forming a trend reversal pattern (inverted head and shoulder) and the moving averages have crossed bullish and are steady, all suggesting that price may move higher. There is a lot of resistance above current price, signalling that a bullish run may struggle.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6585, 0.6555 and 0.6515. A bullish move may find resistance around 0.6630, 0.6665 and 0.6750.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their March 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by another 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.50% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate, stimulate economy and counter the negative economic impact of coronavirus. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US ADP non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC. An Australian trade balance figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has found support around the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is currently in a retrace phase after a recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that price could move higher. EURGBP is currently ranging though and moving sideways between 0.8685 and 0.8740.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the range support area at 0.8685 and if price moves above the range resistance area. Price could stall or reverse around the range resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. EURUSD is currently ranging though (1.1110-1.1185). Price is around a key higher time-frame resistance, suggesting that the EURUSD may attempt a bearish move before moving higher.

Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1110, 1.1045 and 1.0965. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs and range resistance at 1.1185.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD has found resistance around 1.2835 and has started ranging (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been down-trending but is currently ranging between the recent lows at 1.2745 and the horizontal resistance at 1.2835. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that GBPUSD could break to the downside of the range.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Opportunities to go short may exist around 1.2855, around the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0930 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around 0.6325. The NZDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price has swung above the recent trend resistance area, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening. The moving averages confirm this – they have been tightening and have now crossed bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6195, 0.6330, 0.6355 and 0.6380.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD has reversed around 1.3390 (as also suggested). Price is moving sideways and is forming a horizontal channel at 1.3315-1.3390. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are also moving sideways. The USDCAD is around a previous higher time-frame consolidation resistance, suggesting that price could attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.3305 and 1.3265. A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.3455.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has reversed off the shorter-term moving average and has swung lower. Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9555, 0.9605, 0.9625 and 0.9685.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 108.55 and 109.65. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows at 107.05.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 50 points due to heightened concerns regarding the coronavirus outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.25%. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish but is still looking indecisive. GOLD is lacking clear trend direction. The moving averages are crossing and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1562, 1574, 1585, 1610, 1655 and 1687.

 

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