TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 03, 2020


 

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – money fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY). Stock markets down***

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found resistance around the trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average. Price has been clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. AUDUSD recently moved above the trend resistance area though, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening.

Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6560, 0.6585, 0.6630 and 0.6665. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6510 and 0.6455.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

An Australian GDP figure will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a large bullish move and is now currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that EURGBP may attempt to swing higher. Price is moving within a large range on higher time-frames (0.8300-0.9300), suggesting that the EURGBP may experience times of market indecision.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. A bullish move may find resistance or even reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8740.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. The EURUSD is up-trending. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the EURUSD could attempt to swing higher.

Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1045 and 1.0965. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1180.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the 38.2% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since been finding support around 1.2750 (as also suggested). The GBPUSD is down-trending but is currently looking a little indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue. Price may start ranging between 1.2745 and 1.2835.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2835 and 1.2860. The GBPUSD may be rejected or reverse around the lows at 1.2745.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0930 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average. Price is clearly down-trending – NZDUSD has been forming lower swing lows and lower swing highs. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. The NZDUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6285, 0.6325 and 0.6355. An attempt to move lower could find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 0.6195.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDCAD was bullish but reversed around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been up-trending but is now looking a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways. USDCAD is above a recent consolidation on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3205, 1.3265, 1.3305, 1.3315, 1.3390 and 1.3455.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The USDCHF is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9625, 0.9685, 0.9720 and 0.9735. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows at 0.9560.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the recent lows at 107.35 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDJPY is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 108.55 and 109.65. USDJPY may continue to find support around the recent lows at 107.35.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been bearish. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and widening though, signalling that GOLD could attempt another bearish move.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1610, 1629 and 1655. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 1574 and 1562.

 

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/