TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 02, 2020
***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – money fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY). Stock markets down***
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has moved lower. AUDUSD is currently finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average (as also suggested). Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. AUDUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames and is hitting multi year lows, adding confidence that the downside direction may continue.
Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6545, 0.6585 and 0.6630. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 0.6455.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. An Australian building approvals figure will be released at 0030 UTC. The RBA will release a rate statement and announce the official cash rate at 0330 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is up-trending. Price has formed a clear bullish move and is now in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that EURGBP could attempt to swing higher.
Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous resistance at 0.8500. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8640.
The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has swung higher. Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames and is currently in a bullish retrace, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move.
Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support at 1.0965.
The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GBPUSD has been bearish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is now retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that GBPUSD could attempt to swing lower. Price is down-trending on higher-frames, adding confidence that the downside direction could continue.
Shorting opportunities may exist around the 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 1.2855 and around the diagonal resistance area. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 1.2755.
The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames.
Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6285 and 0.6325. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.6195.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bearish, it has been retracing some of the recent bullish move. The USDCAD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price has recent broken above a key consolidation area on higher time-frames, suggesting that the USDCAD could uptrend longer-term.
Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the longer-term moving average, around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.3325, 1.3305 and 1.3265. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 1.3455.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bearish and has moved lower. Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.
Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9685, 0.9720, 0.9735 and 0.9775. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent lows and support at 0.9625.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.
Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 109.55 and 109.65.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.
A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish. As identified, GOLD has been rejected at 1562. Price is now retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue.
Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1629 and 1655. A bearish move may find support around 1562.
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