TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 28, 2020


 

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – money fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY). Stock markets down***

 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The AUDUSD is clearly down-trending. Price is trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. AUDUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames and is hitting multi year lows, adding confidence to the continued downside direction.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6545, 0.6585, 0.6630 and 0.6665. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP has been very bullish. Price is currently moving sideways. EURGBP has swung above a number of key resistance areas and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that price may start up-trending. The EURGBP is nearing daily range resistance, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move.

Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.8500 and 0.8405.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been very bullish. The EURUSD has swung above a number of key resistance levels, signalling that price could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. EURUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel on higher time-frames, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0900, 1.0860 and 1.0835.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD is choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Price action has been forming lower swing highs, suggesting that the GBPUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2855, 1.2870, 1.3015, 1.3040 and 1.3055. If price closes below 1.2855, the GBPUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. NZDUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6285 and 0.6325.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Just like other currency pairs, the USDCAD has been very bullish. Price has swung above the recent consolidation area, suggesting that the USDCAD may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening.

If price starts retracing, opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish and is moving lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9720, 0.9735 and 0.9775.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY has been bearish. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that price may start down-trending.

Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 109.55, 109.65, 109.85 and 110.60.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price has started ranging between 1629 and 1655 and is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1686.

 

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