TriumphFX Forex Analysis – USD Pairs – February 2020


 

USDCAD – Daily & 4 Hourly 

 

On the daily time-frame, price is indecisive. USDCAD has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2965-1.3340 and is moving within the channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Price has been bullish on the 4 hour time-frame and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside direction could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the daily and 4 hourly moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels on the 4 hour chart and around the horizontal levels at 1.3220 and 1.3035. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3320 and around the daily horizontal channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

 

USDCHF – Daily & 4 Hourly 

 

Just like USDCAD, the USDCHF is also looking indecisive and has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9630-1.0005. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

The USDCHF has been bullish on the 4 hour chart. Price was indecisive and moving within a sideways consolidation. USDCHF has recently swung above this area though and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that price may start up-trending.

Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels on the 4 hour chart, around the 4 hour moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9755 and 0.9630. A bullish move may find resistance around the daily longer-term moving average and around the daily channel resistance at 1.0005.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

 

USDJPY – Daily & 4 Hourly 

 

USDJPY has been bullish on the daily time-frame. Price was moving within a bullish channel but has since been bullish. The break of the recent bullish channel resistance suggests that the uptrend could continue. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and steady.

On the 4 hour time-frame, USDJPY is clearly up-trending. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous daily bullish channel resistance area, around the daily and 4 hourly moving averages and around the horizontal level at 110.20. USDJPY could be rejected or reverse around 112.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

 

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