TriumphFX Forex Analysis – NZD Pairs – February 2020


 

NZDCAD – Daily & 4 Hourly Charts

 

The NZDCAD has been down-trending on the daily time-frame – price action has been forming clear lower swing lows and lower swing highs. NZDCAD is below the moving averages and price is also down-trending on the weekly time-frames, all suggesting that the downside direction may continue.

Price is also down-trending on the 4 hour time-frame. The NZDCAD recent broke below a bearish channel support area, signalling the strength of the current bearish momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening.

Selling opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the 4 hour bearish channel, around the dynamic resistance of the 4 hour and daily moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8490, 0.8600, 0.8620 and 0.8695.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

 

NZDCHF – Daily & 4 Hourly Charts

 

On the daily chart, price has been down-trending. Recent price action looks indecisive though and could be forming a tightening triangular consolidation pattern. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. The NZDCHF could start ranging between 0.6185 and 0.6550.

On the 4 hour chart, NZDCHF is looking very similar – price has been down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and steady though, signalling that price could attempt a move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the 4 hour and daily moving averages, around the daily range support and resistance areas, around the support and resistance areas of the daily symmetrical triangle pattern and around the 4 hour horizontal levels at 0.6220, 0.6240 and 0.6425.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020.

 

NZDJPY – Daily & 4 Hourly Charts

 

NZDJPY is ranging on the daily time-frame and may be forming a large horizontal channel at 66.65-73.35. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Price is also ranging on the 4 hour time-frame. Price action has formed a tighter range at 69.95-71.25. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the NZDJPY may break to the downside of the range.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance area of the 4 hour range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 71.60 and around the daily range resistance area. A break to the downside may find support around the daily range support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

 

NZDUSD – Daily & 4 Hourly Charts

 

Just like other NZD pairs, NZDUSD is indecisive and is ranging. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.6240-0.6775 and the NZDUSD is moving within the channel. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

On the 4 hour time-frame, price is down-trending. NZDUSD has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the daily and 4 hourly moving averages, around the 4 hour bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6385 and 0.6495. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the 4 hour bearish channel support area and around the daily horizontal channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020.

 

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