TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 13, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has found support around the longer-term moving average. The AUDUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. Even though price is down-trending, the AUDUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6750 and 0.6775. A bearish move may find support around the longer-term moving average, around the recent swing low at 0.6665 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is currently finding support around a consolidation support area (as also suggested). The EURGBP continues to move within a large consolidation area. Recent price action has been bearish though and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the recent downside direction could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.8440 and 0.8470. A bearish move could find support and even reverse around the horizontal support at 0.8385 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been bearish and has swung lower. Price is clearly down-trending. EURUSD has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting that a bullish retrace move may be due – the EURUSD may become bullish before attempting to swing lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.0905, 1.0920 and 1.0990.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price is starting to look a little indecisive and the moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that the GBPUSD could struggle to swing lower. Price continues to look indecisive on higher time-frames, signalling potential indecision.

Selling opportunities may exist around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2985 and 1.3065. A bearish move could find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent lows at 1.2875.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been rejected around the shorter-term moving average. NZDUSD is above a recent bearish channel, suggesting that price may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish and are widening. NZDUSD continues to downtrend on higher time-frames, suggesting that attempts to swing higher may encounter strong resistance.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the recent swing low at 0.6380. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6485, 0.6500 and 0.6550.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bearish and has moved below the recent consolidation area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDCAD is below the recent bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price could start down-trending. Price action is forming a potential bearish channel.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the previous channel support area at 1.3265 and the recent highs at 1.3325. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3190, 1.3155 and 1.3125.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bullish and has been finding resistance around 0.9785. Price was showing signs of a potential uptrend but is currently struggling to swing higher. The USDCHF is starting to look a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price action is forming a horizontal channel at 0.9740-0.9785.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.9720.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY has been bullish but is now looking indecisive again. Price is now ranging between 109.55-110.10. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. USDJPY is up-trending within a bullish channel on higher time-frames, signalling that price could attempt another bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 109.25 and 109.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

US CPI figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. GOLD has formed a horizontal channel at 1562-1576.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1593. A break to the downside may find support around 1549.

 

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