TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 11, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is currently finding resistance around the longer-term moving average. The AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that the downtrend may continue. The AUDUSD may retrace above both moving averages before attempting a bearish move lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.6775. A bearish move may find support or even reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the bearish channel support area and around the recent swing low at 0.6665.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. The EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is also lacking trend momentum on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance) and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8385, 0.8440, 0.8470, 0.8500 and 0.8535.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

A UK preliminary GDP figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC. The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1535 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The EURUSD has formed a tight bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is nearing key support areas of higher time-frames, suggesting that the EURUSD may start a retrace move.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the tight bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1.0990. Price may stall or reverse around the tight bearish channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady and the GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the downside direction could continue. Price could start ranging between 1.2875 and 1.2950.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2950 and 1.3065. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.2875.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A UK preliminary GDP figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC. The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1535 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continues to be bearish and move lower. NZDUSD is down-trending within a large bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is also down-trending within a large bearish channel on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6450 and 0.6500. A bearish move may find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today. The RBNZ will release a monetary policy statement and a rate statement at 0100 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 0200 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish and has formed a swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDCAD is clearly up-trending – price action has been forming higher swing highs and higher swing lows. USDCAD has swung above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price is nearing key resistance on higher time-frames though, suggesting that a bearish move could be imminent.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3265 and 1.3190. A bullish move could find resistance around the moving averages, around the bullish channel resistance area and around the recent highs at 1.3325.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCHF has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that USDCHF may start up-trending.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 0.9720. A bullish move may find resistance around 0.9785.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is above previous swing highs, signalling that the USDJPY could start up-trending. Current price action is signalling indecision though. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 109.60 and the horizontal resistance at 110.00.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 109.25 and 109.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish and is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1549, 1561, 1576 and 1593.

 

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