TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 10, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD has formed a swing lower. Price was down-trending but has recently been moving sideways (indecisive). The newly formed swing lower could signal that the downtrend is starting again. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening – confirming the potential downside. Price action has formed a slight bearish channel.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.6775. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the recent swing low at 0.6665.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8385, 0.8440, 0.8470, 0.8535 and 0.8550.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. EURUSD is down-trending. Price has broken below the recent large bearish channel support area and has now formed a more aggressive bearish channel, signalling the strength of the current bearish momentum. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. EURUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1.0990. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 1.0940 and around the bearish channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has reversed around the trend area and has swung lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). GBPUSD is down-trending. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downside direction may continue. GBPUSD continues to look indecisive and range on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may become indecisive again.

Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2955 and 1.3065.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been bearish and has swung lower. Price is clearly down-trending and is moving within a large bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. The NZDUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the current trend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6450, 0.6500 and 0.6550. A bearish move could find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDCAD has been bullish and has broken above the recent range resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is now looking indecisive again and is now ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3265 and the recent highs at 1.3315. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. The USDCAD is nearing key resistance levels on the higher time-frames, suggesting that a bearish move may be imminent. A break to the upside of the range though may signal a continuation of the recent uptrend.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.3190, 1.3155 and 1.3125.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish. The USDCHF has been bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation area, suggesting that the USDCHF could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and steady.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9760 and 0.9715.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding support around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY has been very bullish and is currently in a retrace phase. Price is above a number of key resistance levels and the moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the USDJPY may start up-trending. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames and is moving within a bullish channel, adding confidence that the USDJPY may start up-trending on lower time-frames also.

Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 109.55, 109.25 and 109.10. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 110.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bullish. Price action has formed a bullish channel, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening – confirming the potential upside.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal level at 1561. A bullish move could find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area and around the highs at 1593.

 

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