TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 07, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has become indecisive and is ranging. The AUDUSD is ranging between the recent lows at 0.6685 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6775. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. If price closes below the range support area, the recent downtrend may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.6830 and 0.6875.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US employment change (NFP), unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The EURGBP is lacking trend direction and has been moving sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no indication of where the EURGBP could go next.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8385, 0.8440, 0.8535 and 0.8550.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD closed below the large horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the EURUSD may start down-trending again. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the downside may continue. Price action has formed a large bearish channel.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the identified diagonal resistance area, around the previous consolidation support at 1.0990, around the bearish channel resistance area and if price moves below the bearish channel support area. The EURUSD may continue to find support or even reverse around the bearish channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bearish. Price action has formed a short series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – price is down-trending. The GBPUSD has swung below the recent consolidation support area, signalling that price could move lower. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and steady.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2945 and 1.3065.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. NZDUSD was moving within a range but is now down-trending again. Price action has formed a large bearish channel and NZDUSD is below the recent consolidation area, all signalling that the downtrend may continue. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are crossing bearish.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6450 and 0.6500.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

US employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to reverse off the tight range support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDCAD has been up-trending but is currently moving in a tight range at 1.3265-1.3300. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that price could break to the upside of the range. USDCAD is nearing a key resistance on higher time-frames, signalling that a bearish move could be imminent. The major scheduled USD news today will likely provide some direction to this pair.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3190 and 1.3155.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

US employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will be released at 1330 UTC today. Canadian employment change and unemployment rate figures will also be released at the same time.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCHF has been finding resistance around 0.9760. Price has been bullish for the third consecutive trading day but overall is still looking indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the bullish momentum may continue. If USDCHF closes above 0.9760, price may start up-trending.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.9715. USDCHF may be rejected or reverse around 0.9760.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

US employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has formed a large bullish move and has swung above a number of previous swing highs, suggesting that USDJPY could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and steady. Price is currently finding resistance around 110.00, signalling that USDJPY could retrace before attempting to swing higher.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 109.80, 109.65, 109.25 and 109.10. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 110.00 and 110.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

US employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. GOLD is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1549, 1561, 1564, 1572 and 1593.

 

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