TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 06, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD found resistance around 0.6775. Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The retrace move has been significant and has reached the previous swing high, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. AUDUSD could start ranging between the recent swing low at 0.6685 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6775.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.6830 and 0.6875.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The President of the RBA will speak at 2230 UTC today. This is followed by a RBA monetary policy statement at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of where EURGBP may go from here.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8385, 0.8440, 0.8485, 0.8535 and 0.8550.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0800 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has moved lower and has been finding support around 1.0990. EURUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Price action has formed a large horizontal channel at 1.0990-1.1095. The higher time-frames are still bearish, signalling a potential downside break of the channel.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade).

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The President of the ECB will speak at 0800 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. GBPUSD is lacking trend momentum and is moving sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. The higher time-frames are also signalling market indecision, giving no indication of where price may go from here.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2945, 1.3065 and 1.3145.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the NZDUSD could attempt to swing lower. Price action could be forming a horizontal channel at 0.6450-0.6500 though – NZDUSD could become indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and moving sideways.

Opportunities to go short may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area, around the horizontal levels at 0.6500, 0.6550 and 0.6585 and if price closes below 0.6450. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the potential channel support at 0.6450.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been finding resistance at 1.3300 and support at 1.3265. Price has been up-trending but is currently moving sideways. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 1.3265-1.3300. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the USDCAD may move higher. Price is a key resistance on higher time-frames though, suggesting that a strong bearish move may be due.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal support levels at 1.3190, 1.3155 and 1.3125.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the moving averages (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF has been bullish but continues to be in a large consolidation area. Overall, price is indecisive and lacking clear trend direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9620, 0.9630, 0.9715 and 0.9760. If price closes above 0.9760, the USDCHF could attempt a bullish move higher.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. The USDJPY is above a number of key resistance levels and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that price may start up-trending.

Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 109.80, 109.65, 109.25 and 109.10. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 110.25.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has become indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and widening though, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1549, 1561, 1564 and 1572.

 

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