TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 03, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the bearish channel resistance area and has continued to be bearish and move lower. AUDUSD is clearly down-trending. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6740, 0.6775 and 0.6830. A bearish move could find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. The RBA will release a rate statement and announce the official bank rate at 0330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is down-trending within a large bearish channel. The moving averages have just crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, giving confidence that the current trend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8405, 0.8480 and 0.8505. A strong bearish move may find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, EURUSD closed above the potential range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price was recently down-trending within a bearish channel but has since been bullish and swung above the channel resistance area. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that EURUSD could start up-trending. Price has reversed off a major horizontal support on higher time-frames, adding confidence of a possible uptrend.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1075 and 1.1040. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1115 and 1.1165.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD closed above the horizontal resistance at 1.3145 and has since moved higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has been bullish and has moved above the recent consolidation resistance area. The GBPUSD has finally got some direction – potential uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling the potential trend.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3145, 1.3095 and 1.3025.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Price is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting that a bullish retrace move is due.

If the NZDUSD starts retracing, opportunities to go short may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6550 and 0.6585. Price could stall or reverse off the recent lows at 0.6455.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is up-trending and has just swung above a long-term bullish channel resistance area, signalling the bullish strength of the current trend. Price has now formed a new tighter bullish channel and the USDCAD is finding resistance around the channel resistance area. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the trend may continue. USDCAD is nearing a higher time-frame resistance area though – a bearish correction move may be due.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3190, 1.3155 and 1.3125. Price may be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around the recent highs at 1.3245.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bearish. Price is still looking indecisive though and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9620, 0.9670, 0.9685 and 0.9715. If the USDCHF closes below 0.9620, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY has been bearish and has swung lower. Price is below the recent consolidation area, suggesting that the USDJPY may start down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential downtrend.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 108.60, 108.80, 109.10, 109.25 and 109.35.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

A US Manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher. GOLD is moving within a large bullish channel and is up-trending. The moving averages have just crossed bullish and price has closed above a recent consolidation area, all suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1585, 1572 and 1564. A bullish move could find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area.

 

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