TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 31, 2020

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bearish and has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area. Price is clearly down-trending and has been moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. The AUDUSD is looking over-extended on the higher time-frames, suggesting that a bullish move may be due.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6740, 0.6775 and 0.6830. A bearish move may find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bearish and is currently forming a swing lower. Price has reversed strongly bearish. Price action has formed a large bearish channel and the EURGBP is down-trending within the channel. The moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the current downside direction could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8405 and 0.8480. The EURGBP could find support around the channel support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has moved above the recent bearish channel resistance area. The EURUSD is above the channel resistance and also above the moving averages, signalling that downside momentum is weakening – the recent downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and moving sideways. Price may become indecisive and start ranging between the recent swing low at 1.0990 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1040.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.1075. Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages and around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support).

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the horizontal level at 1.2985 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has been bullish but continues to move within a large consolidation area. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. If price closes above the consolidation resistance at 1.3145, the GBPUSD could finally have some direction i.e a possible uptrend.

Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2965, 1.2985, 1.3025 and 1.3145. If price closes above 1.3145, the GBPUSD could attempt a bullish move higher.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. NZDUSD is at key support levels on higher time-frames, suggesting that a bullish retrace move may be imminent.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6550 and 0.6585.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD reversed around the bearish channel resistance area and then found support around the shorter-term moving average and has since swung higher (as all suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be bullish and uptrend within a large bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. USDCAD is at the bullish channel resistance around, signalling that another retrace move could be due.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3190, 1.3155 and 1.3125. Price could stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support around the horizontal level at 0.9685. USDCHF is looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9670, 0.9685 and 0.9760.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price broke to the downside of the range but has since re-entered the consolidation area and is looking indecisive again. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 108.60, 108.80, 109.25, 109.35 and 109.65.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1585. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel but is also forming a potential horizontal channel at 1564-1585. The moving averages have been crossing frequently, suggesting potential market indecision.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1564 and 1551. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1585 and the bullish channel resistance area.

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