TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 30, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower. NZDUSD has been forming lower swing lows and lower swing highs – price is clearly down-trending. Price action has formed a new bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue. NZDUSD is starting to look over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting that a bullish retrace move could be due.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance around, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6740, 0.6775 and 0.6830. A bearish move could find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price found support around the bullish channel support area and the horizontal level at 0.8450 and has since moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP has formed a bullish channel and has swung above the recent bearish trend resistance area, all signalling that price may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening. Price is testing a key resistance area on higher time-frames, suggesting that a bearish move is possible.

Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) ad around the horizontal levels at 0.8450 and 0.8405. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8480, 0.8505 and 0.8550.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

The BOE will release a monetary policy summary report and announce the official bank rate at 1200 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area. Price closed below the range support area but has continued to move sideways. EURUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. Price is nearing the channel resistance area – the EURUSD could attempt a move off the channel resistance area. The moving averages are bearish but beginning to tighten, signalling that downside momentum could be weakening – price could attempt a move above the bearish channel resistance.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1025 and 1.1075. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1.0990 and the channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD has been rejected around 1.2985 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. The moving averages are currently bearish and steady though, signalling that GBPUSD may attempt a bearish move lower and may break to the downside of the consolidation.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2965, 1.2985, 1.3025, 1.3095 and 1.3145. If price closes below 1.2965, the GBPUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

The BOE will release a monetary policy summary report and announce the official bank rate at 1200 UTC today. A US advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since swung lower. The NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price is at some key support areas of higher time-frames, suggesting that NZDUSD could be due a bullish retrace move.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6550 and 0.6585.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bullish and is currently finding resistance around the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is up-trending within a large bullish channel. Price is currently around the bullish channel resistance area, suggesting that the USDCAD may start a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that a strong bearish move may be imminent.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3200, 1.3155 and 1.3225. USDCAD may reverse and become bearish off the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF was bullish and then reversed around the highs at 0.9755. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price action is formed an inverted head and shoulder pattern on higher time-frames, suggesting that more upside could come.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9685 and 0.9670. A bullish move could find resistance around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 0.9760.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY has reversed around the horizontal level at 108.80 (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been down-trending but is currently struggling to swing lower. The moving averages confirm the weakening downside momentum – they are tightening and moving sideways. The USDJPY is forming a horizontal channel at 108.80-109.25 and is looking indecisive.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal levels at 109.35, 109.65 and 109.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

A US advance GDP figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the bullish channel support area. GOLD is up-trending and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that buying momentum could be weakening – price could struggle to swing higher. GOLD could start ranging between the recent swing low at 1564 and the recent swing high at 1585.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1564 and 1551. A bullish move could find resistance and even reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1585 and 1599.

 

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