TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 29, 2020

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has started retracing. Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Due to the short size of the current retrace move, the AUDUSD may retrace higher before attempting to swing lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 0.6830. A bearish move may find support around the recent swing low at 0.6740.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

The US FOMC will release a statement and announce rates at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been indecisive and is currently above the recent consolidation area and has formed a bullish channel, both signalling potential upside. The moving averages have crossed bullish – confirming the buying momentum. EURGBP is down-trending longer-term though, providing mixed directional signals. Price could just become indecisive.

Trading opportunities may exist around the bearish trend resistance area, around the support and resistance areas of the bullish channel, around the bullish moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8405, 0.8450, 0.8480, 0.8505 and 0.8550. If price closes below the bullish channel support area, the EURGBP could attempt a bearish move lower and attempt to downtrend.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has entered a retrace move and has moved away from the bearish channel support area. The EURUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The current retrace move has formed a tight range at 1.1000-1.1025. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue – price may break to the downside of the current range. EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames also, adding confidence that the current downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area, around the range resistance area and if price closes below the range support. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the tight range support area and around the bearish channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

The US FOMC will release a statement and announce rates at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. The GBPUSD is also indecisive on the higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2965, 1.2985, 1.3095, 1.3145 and 1.3165. If GBPUSD closes below 1.2965, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

The US FOMC will release a statement and announce rates at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD reversed around the previous bearish channel support area (as resistance) and around the shorter-term moving average. Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The NZDUSD is below the recent bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downtrend may continue. The current retrace move has only been small, suggesting that price may retrace further before attempting a move lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous bearish channel support area and around the previous horizontal support at 0.6585. A bearish move may find support around 0.6525.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

The US FOMC will release a statement and announce rates at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. USDCAD is moving within a large bullish channel. The bullish moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling that price could retrace lower. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that at some point the USDCAD could become strongly bearish and swing below the channel support area.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3125, 1.3095 and 1.3090. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3200 and around the channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

The US FOMC will release a statement and announce rates at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the channel resistance area and has since been bullish. USDCHF is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all signalling that price may start up-trending.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.9720 and 0.9715. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent highs at 0.9755.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The US FOMC will release a statement and announce rates at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDJPY has been down-trending but recently broke above the shorter-term moving average and range resistance area, signalling that downside momentum could be weakening. The moving averages confirm the weakening selling momentum – they are tightening and starting to move sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 108.80, 109.10, 109.35, 109.65, 109.80 and 110.25. If USDJPY closes below 108.80, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The US FOMC will release a statement and announce rates at 1900 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the trend support area. Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. GOLD has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways, suggesting that price may struggle to swing higher.

Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1567 and 1551. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the recent swing high at 1585 and the channel resistance area.

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