TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 28, 2020

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. AUDUSD is clearly down-trending. Price was recently down-trending within a bearish channel but has broken below the channel support area. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. AUDUSD is starting to look over-extended on the higher time-frames, suggesting that a bullish retrace move could be due.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel support and resistance areas and around the previous horizontal support at 0.6830. A bearish move could find support around 0.6750.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. Australian CPI figures will be released at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding support and resistance around range support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP was down-trending but has recently become indecisive and has been ranging between 0.8405 and 0.8450. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is currently attempting a move above the range resistance area, suggesting that EURGBP may attempt a bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around any of the previous horizontal support levels at 0.8455, 0.8480 and 0.8505.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. EURUSD is also down-trending on the higher time-frames, adding confidence that there is more downside to come. Price has been finding support around the bearish channel support area, signalling that a retrace move could be imminent.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1075 and 1.1115. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bearish. Price has almost reversed the recent bullish swing, which was suggesting some potential upside. GBPUSD is now looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2965, 1.3095, 1.3145, 1.3165 and 1.3190.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. NZDUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. NZDUSD was recently moving within a bearish channel but recent broke below the channel support area, indicating the strength of the current downside momentum. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous bearish channel support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 0.6585.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around the bullish channel resistance area and support around the trend support area (as all suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is up-trending within a bullish channel and is currently around the channel resistance area, suggesting that price may be due a retrace/correction move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

If the USDCAD starts retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3165, 1.3125 and 1.3095. Price may reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The USDCHF is moving within a horizontal channel consolidation at 0.9670-0.9720. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.9755. A break to the downside could find support at 0.9620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has reversed around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending but is currently moving within a tight range at 108.80-109.10. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue – USDJPY may break to the downside of the range. A break to the upside may quickly reverse and swing lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area, if price moves below the tight range support area and around the horizontal levels at 109.10, 109.35, 109.65 and 109.80. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the range support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.60 and 107.85.

A US consumer confidence figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is currently up-trending. GOLD is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the uptrend may continue. Price is up-trending on the higher time-frames, adding confidence that the current trend may continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 1567. A bullish move may find resistance around 1585 and 1599.

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