TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 27, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. Price was down-trending until it recently started consolidating within a horizontal channel. Now that the AUDUSD has broken below the consolidation, the recent downtrend may now continue. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential downside.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal channel support at 0.6830. AUDUSD may find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.8450 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. EURGBP could be forming a potential range at 0.8405-0.8450, suggesting that price could become indecisive.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, if price closes below the potential range support at 0.8405 and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8450, 0.8455, 0.8480 and 0.8505. The EURGBP could stall or reverse around the range support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

A German Ifo business climate figure will be announced at 0900 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price continues to be bearish and has been finding support around the bearish channel support area. The EURUSD is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is also down-trending on the higher time-frames, adding confidence that there is more downside to come.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1.1075. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A German Ifo business climate figure will be announced at 0900 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around 1.3145 and has since been retracing some of the recent bullish move (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, signalling that price could struggle to swing higher. There are also a number of key horizontal resistance levels above current price, adding to the lack of upside confidence.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the recent support at 1.3055. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3095, 1.3105, 1.3145, 1.3165 and 1.3190.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD has been very bearish. Price has swung below the recent consolidation area and has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that NZDUSD may start down-trending. The moving averages are still tight and moving sideways though, signalling market indecision.

Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.6585, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price may find support around the bearish channel support area and even could start a retrace move off that area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, USDCAD has reversed around the 38.2% Fib level and has swung higher. Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – the USDCAD is clearly up-trending. Price is moving within a bullish channel and is currently nearing the channel resistance area, signalling that USDCAD could start retracing. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area, around the bullish moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3165, 1.3125 and 1.3100. Price could attempt a retrace move off the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has found resistance around the range resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). USDCHF is indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9670 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9720. The moving averages are tight but are bullish, suggesting that USDCHF may attempt to break above the current range.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9755. A break to the downside may find support around the lows at 0.9620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since swung lower. USDJPY is down-trending. Price was recent moving within a horizontal channel but has been bearish since USDJPY closed below the channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price is nearing some key support levels, suggesting that USDJPY could be due a retrace move.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 109.35, 109.65 and 109.80. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal levels at 108.60 and 107.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is  currently up-trending. GOLD is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the uptrend may continue. Price is up-trending on the higher time-frames, adding confidence that the current trend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 1567. A bullish move may find resistance around 1599.

 

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