TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 24, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price attempted to swing lower but has found support around 0.6830. AUDUSD is down-trending but is struggling to swing lower. The moving averages confirm the weakening downside momentum – they are tightening and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. Price action is forming a horizontal channel from the recent lows at 0.6830 and the horizontal resistance at 0.6875. If AUDUSD closes below the current horizontal channel, price could continue the recent downtrend.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.6885 and 0.6925.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US Treasury speech is scheduled for 0930 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is clearly down-trending – price continues to form lower swing highs and lows and move lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. The higher time-frames are starting to look over-extended, suggesting a bullish retrace move – EURGBP may retrace before attempting a swing lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8425, 0.8450, 0.8455, 0.8480 and 0.8505.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

European PMI figures are set for release at 0815 and 0830 UTC today. The President of the ECB will speak at 0930 UTC. UK PMI figures will be released at 0930 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been bearish and has found support around the bearish channel support area. Price is clearly down-trending. Price action has formed a large bearish channel and also a much shorter-term and tighter bearish channel. The moving averages continue to be bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. EURUSD is around both channel support areas, signalling a potential bullish retrace move.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around both bearish channel resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.1075 and 1.1115. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 1.1040 and both channel support areas.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

European PMI figures are set for release at 0815 and 0830 UTC today. The President of the ECB will speak at 0930 UTC. A US Treasury speech is scheduled for the same time.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD has been finding support around the trend support area and the shorter-term moving (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending after recently moving above a bearish channel resistance area. The uptrend is clear – price action has formed distinctive swing highs and lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside direction may continue. GBPUSD is nearing a number of key resistance levels, suggesting a potential retrace move before attempting to swing higher.

Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3105 and 1.3095. Price may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3145, 1.3165 and 1.3190.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

UK PMI figures will be released at 0930 UTC today. A US Treasury speech is scheduled for 0930 UTC also.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continued to find support around the range support area. The NZDUSD has moved above the recent consolidation (range) area – the recent downtrend could becoming to an end. Price is now potentially moving in a much large range at 0.6585-0.6655. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6585, 0.6615, 0.6655, 0.6670 and 0.6675.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US Treasury speech is scheduled for 0930 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price is moving within a large bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. The USDCAD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the current uptrend may soon reverse and become bearish.

Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average, around the bullish channel support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3100 and 1.3090. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the recent swing high at 1.3165 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US Treasury speech is scheduled for 0930 UTC today.  A Canadian retail sales figure will be announced at 1330 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has reversed off the horizontal level at 0.9670. Price is still looking indecisive and has formed a range at 0.9670-0.9720 (horizontal support and recent swing high). The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US Treasury speech is scheduled for 0930 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending. The USDJPY is below the recent horizontal channel consolidation area. Price swung below the recent bearish channel support area and the moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 109.80 and 110.25. A bearish move may find support around 108.60 and 107.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

A US Treasury speech is scheduled for 0930 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found resistance around 1567 and continues to be indecisive. GOLD is indecisive and lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1548-1567.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1579 and 1599. A break to the downside could find support around 1537.

 

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