TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 23, 2020

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average. Price struggled to swing lower though and is now in a retrace move. AUDUSD has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish but are beginning to tighten and move sideways, signalling potential indecision – the AUDUSD may struggle to swing lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6885 and 0.6930. An attempt to swing lower may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 0.6830.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

US crude oil inventories is scheduled for 1600 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bearish and has moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending. EURGBP was moving within a bearish channel but has broken to the downside of the channel and also the recent consolidation area, all signalling that the current downtrend could continue. The moving averages confirm the current downside momentum – they are bearish and widening.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous channel support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8450, 0.8455, 0.8480 and 0.8505. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 0.8425.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official bank rate at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the moving averages. The EURUSD is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel. Recent price action has been a little choppy though, making EURUSD look a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and moving sideways. Price may start ranging between the recent lows at 1.1075 and the recent swing high at 1.1115. The current downtrend suggests that the EURUSD may break to the downside of the range.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official bank rate at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC. US crude oil inventories is scheduled for 1600 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price closed above the horizontal channel resistance and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has swung above the recent bearish channel and the range consolidation area, all suggesting that price could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they have crossed bullish and are widening. GBPUSD is still consolidating longer-term, signalling that the trend could become choppy.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous range resistance at 1.3095. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3165 and 1.3190.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

US crude oil inventories is scheduled for 1600 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD has been attempting to move lower but has been continually rejected around 0.6585. Price has become indecisive again and has now formed a tight range at 0.6585-0.6615. NZDUSD is still below the much larger range at 0.6595-0.6655 and the moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move. If price moves below the current range, the NZDUSD may start down-trending again.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the tight range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.6655, 0.6670 and 0.6675.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

US crude oil inventories is scheduled for 1600 UTC today. A CPI figure for New Zealand will be released at 2145 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is clearly up-trending. USDCAD has swung above the recent bullish channel and has now formed a much larger bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price could start retracing before it attempts to swing higher.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3095 and 1.3090.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

US crude oil inventories is scheduled for 1600 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. The USDCHF has failed to swing higher and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9620, 0.9650, 0.9670, 0.9720 and 0.9755.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

US crude oil inventories is scheduled for 1600 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the horizontal channel support area and has since bearish. USDJPY is below the recent horizontal channel, suggesting that price could start down-trending. USDJPY has also formed a bearish channel and is currently finding support around the channel support area. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they have crossed bearish and are widening.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 109.80 and 110.25. Price could continue to find support around the channel support area.

US crude oil inventories is scheduled for 1600 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD is indecisive and is moving sideways (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price has formed a horizontal channel at 1548-1567.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1537. A break to the upside may find resistance around 1579 and 1599.

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