TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 22, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The AUDUSD has moved below the recent consolidation area, signalling that price could move lower. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady. Recent price action suggests that the market indecision is coming to an end.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6850, 0.6885 and 0.6930.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

Australian employment and unemployment data will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. EURGBP has moved below the potential range that was forming and has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that the downtrend may continue. The moving averages are bearish and steady – confirming the bearish momentum. Longer-term, price is still moving within a large horizontal channel, signalling that the current downtrend may become indecisive.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8505, 0.8550 and 0.8570. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8480, 0.8455 and 0.8450.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since swung lower. EURUSD continues to be bearish and downtrend within a large bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price is finding support around 1.1080 though – EURUSD could retrace before attempting to swing lower.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal level at 1.1115. A bearish move could reverse around the horizontal support at 1.1080 and the bearish channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GBPUSD has been down-trending but is now starting to look indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) – price may move out of the bearish channel. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. GBPUSD is forming a horizontal channel at 1.2965-1.3095.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has been bearish. Price has been ranging and has been indecisive. Recent price action has moved below the recent range support area, signalling that the NZDUSD could attempt to move lower. The moving averages confirm the building downside momentum – they are bearish and widening.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous range support area at 0.6595.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDCAD has been bullish and has moved above the recent horizontal channel (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price was indecisive and had formed a horizontal channel. The USDCAD has swung above the recent channel though and has formed higher swing highs and lows, suggesting that price may attempt to uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, signalling the potential upside.

Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3075, 1.3035 and 1.3015. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3095.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian CPI figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The BOC will release a rate statement and monetary policy report at 1500 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1615 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish. The USDCHF is now looking indecisive again – price is lacking clear trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Recent price action has formed a higher swing low and a diagonal support area, suggesting that the USDCHF could move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9620, 0.9650, 0.9670, 0.9695 and 0.9755.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range support area. USDJPY continues to be indecisive and move sideways. Price is ranging and has formed a horizontal channel at 109.80-110.25. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been finding support around 1548 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is looking indecisive again – GOLD seems to be moving sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways and are tightening – confirming the current indecision. Price action could be forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern and price is up-trending longer-term, signalling that GOLD could attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1537, 1548, 1567, 1579 and 1599. Long opportunities may exist if price closes above 1567.

 

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