TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 20, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price is indecisive. AUDUSD is lacking trend direction and is currently moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Recent price action has been bearish and has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling that AUDUSD could move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6850, 0.6885 and 0.6930.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be very choppy and indecisive. EURGBP is clearly lacking trend momentum and is ranging on higher time-frames. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Recent price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, suggesting that the EURGBP may move lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8570 and 0.8585. A bearish move may stall or reverse around either of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8540, 0.8530, 0.8505 and 0.8480.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As identified in Friday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been finding support around the recent lows at 1.1090. Price was up-trending within a bullish channel but has since been strongly bearish. Price action has now formed a long-term bearish channel and a series of lower swing highs and lows – EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages have just crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1110 and 1.1165. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows at 1.1090 and around the channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD has reversed around 1.3095 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has since been bearish. The GBPUSD has become indecisive and is ranging between the recent lows at 1.2965 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3095. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have crossed and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a large bearish channel, suggesting that GBPUSD may break to the downside of the range.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the channel support area. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has become indecisive. The NZDUSD has recently been bearish but is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.6595-0.6655. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action could be forming a large inverted head and shoulder pattern, signalling that the NZDUSD could break to the upside of the current range.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.6670 and 0.6675.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Just like other USD pairs, the USDCAD has become indecisive. Price has been moving sideways and has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3035-1.3075. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3095. A break to the downside may find support around 1.3015 and 1.2960.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the 50.0% Fib level. USDCHF has formed a swing lower and is currently in a retrace phase – the USDCHF could be down-trending. The current retrace move is above the moving averages though and the moving averages are about to cross bullish, suggesting that price could struggle to swing lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the recent swing high at 0.9755. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9670, 0.9650 and 0.9620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside direction may continue. Price may start ranging between the recent swing low at 109.80 and the recent swing high at 110.25.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the potential range support at 109.80. USDJPY may find resistance around the potential range resistance area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding resistance around the range resistance area. Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. GOLD is up-trending longer-term and is currently in a retrace move, signalling that price could break to the upside of the current range.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages. A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1579 and 1599.

 

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