TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 16, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.6880 and is now finding resistance around 0.6915. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price action is forming a horizontal channel at 0.6880-0.6915. A break out of the channel consolidation area could provide some market direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.6925. A break to the downside could find support around 0.6850.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.8540 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has attempted to swing higher but has failed – price has formed a lower swing high. This suggests that the recent uptrend may be over. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the weakening buying momentum.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8450, 0.8455, 0.8480, 0.8515, 0.8530, 0.8540, 0.8570 and 0.8585.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

ECB monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by an ECB speech at 1800 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed off the bullish channel support area and has since moved higher. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.1090, 1.1110 and 1.1145. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1205 and 1.1240.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

ECB monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by an ECB speech at 1800 UTC. US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD has been bullish. Price was struggling to reach the bearish channel support area, signalling a lack of downside momentum (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has swung above the recent bearish channel resistance area and price action has formed a tight bullish channel, all suggesting that GBPUSD may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are crossing bullish.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2965 and 1.2915. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3085, 1.3165 and 1.3190.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price retraced and found resistance around the bearish channel resistance area. NZDUSD has since been bullish though and has moved above the channel. Price was down-trending but the recent bullish move above the channel resistance suggests that the downtrend could be over. The moving averages confirm the lack of downside – they are becoming bullish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support), around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6595, 0.6605, 0.6655, 0.6670 and 0.6675.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bearish. USDCAD has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, forming the start of a potential downtrend. Price has also moved below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all confirming the potential growing downside momentum. USDCAD has formed a bearish channel.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3075 and 1.3100. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3015 and 1.2960.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCHF has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that USDCHF could start down-trending. Price has just been rejected and closed a clear bullish pin bar, which could signal the start of a retrace move.

If USDCHF starts retracing, shorting opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bearish moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9650 and 0.9670.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.