TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 15, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD found support around the longer-term moving average and horizontal level at 0.6880. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around both moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6850, 0.6880, 0.6915 and 0.6925.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP has reversed around the recent highs at 0.8585 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and lows – price is up-trending. EURGBP is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price could attempt to swing higher.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8540, 0.8530 and 0.8515. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.8550, 0.8560 and 0.8585.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

A member of the UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will speak at 0840 UTC today. A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has moved above the recent downtrend trend resistance area and has formed a higher swing high, suggesting that EURUSD may start up-trending. Price action has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways though, signalling market indecision.

Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.1110, 1.1090 and 1.1070. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1145 and 1.1205.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is currently finding resistance around the longer-term moving average. GBPUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price is struggling to reach the bearish channel support area though, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening – GBPUSD could attempt a move higher.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal level at 1.3085. A bearish move could find support around the shorter-term moving average, the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3020 and 1.2960.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A member of the UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will speak at 0840 UTC today. A UK CPI figure will be released at 0930 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The NZDUSD is finding support around 0.6605 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending but is struggling to swing lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish again, signalling that the downside momentum may continue – NZDUSD may retrace first. Price action has formed a bearish channel.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6655, 0.6670 and 0.6675. A bearish move may find support or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.6605 and the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDCAD has been up-trending but is now looking a little indecisive. Price is in a retrace phase but is struggling to swing higher – the USDCAD is currently moving sideways. The moving averages are bullish and steady though, suggesting that price could attempt to swing higher.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3040 and 1.3015. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3100.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price failed to swing higher and has since been bearish. The USDCHF has swung below the recent bullish channel support area, signalling that the uptrend is now over. The moving averages have become bearish and are widening – confirming the lack of buying momentum. Price may start down-trending.

Selling opportunities could exist around the previous channel support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9670 and 0.9735. A bearish move may find support around the lows and support at 0.9650.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around 110.15 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY has recently swung above a consolidation area and has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, signalling that price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. USDJPY is looking a little over-extended, meaning that price may form a bearish retrace move before attempting to move higher.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 109.65 and 109.20. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high and resistance at 110.15.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been bullish. Price was down-trending within a bearish channel but recent price action has moved above the channel resistance area. GOLD is now looking a little indecisive – price is moving sideways. The moving averages are tight and also moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. GOLD is forming a potential horizontal channel at 1537-1562.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1579 and 1599.

 

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