TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 13, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD broke to the upside of the range and has since been bullish. As also suggested, AUDUSD is currently finding resistance around the 38.2% Fib level. Price is in a retrace phase after a recent bearish move. The moving averages have just crossed bullish, signalling that an attempt to swing lower may find support.

Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 0.6925. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6880 and 0.6850.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP has been bullish and has swung above the recent bearish channel resistance area. Price is above a number of key resistance levels and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that EURGBP could start up-trending.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.8560, 0.8540 and 0.8530. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the highs at 0.8585.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price is reversing around the longer-term moving average and the previous support at 1.1130. EURUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal level at 1.1130. A bearish move may find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 1.1090 and 1.1070.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since swung lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). GBPUSD is down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3020, 1.3060 and 1.3085. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the recent lows at 1.2915.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed around the trend resistance area. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – the NZDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6670 and 0.6675. A bearish move may find support around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6625 and 0.6605.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A New Zealand business confidence figure will be released at 2100 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

The USDCAD has been finding support around the trend support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal level at 1.3015. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.3100.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A BOC business outlook survey is scheduled for release at 1530 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the longer-term moving average. The USDCHF is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9670 and 0.9650. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9735, 0.9745, 0.9755 and 0.9775.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to move higher and be bullish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

If price starts retracing, opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 109.65 and 109.20.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the longer-term moving average. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that GOLD may start down-trending.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1557 and 1579. A bearish move may find support around 1543 and the channel support area.

 

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