TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 09, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. Price is currently in a retrace phase after a strong bearish move and is also ranging between 0.6855 and 0.6880. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that AUDUSD may attempt to swing lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal level at 0.6925.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A Australian retail sales figure will be announced at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP reversed around 0.8450 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8480, 0.8540, 0.8560 and 0.8585. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.8450.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has been bearish. The EURUSD has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs – price is down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1130 and 1.1205. A bearish move may find support around the channel support area and around the lows at 1.1070.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is indecisive and has been moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. The GBPUSD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3055 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3190.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1.2915. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3265.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 0930 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD has reversed around the support and resistance areas  of the range (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and range between 0.6625 and 0.6675. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that NZDUSD may break to the downside of the range.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.6555. A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.6750. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. Price is down-trending longer-term and is currently in a large retrace/correction move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that USDCAD could struggle to swing lower.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3105. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3015 and 1.2960.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1900 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDCHF has been bullish. Price has moved above the recent consolidation area and has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that the USDCHF may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they have crossed bullish.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9735, 0.9725, 0.9670 and 0.9650. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9775 and 0.9830.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY found resistance around 108.85 and 109.20 but has since swung higher. Price has been bullish but is still looking indecisive. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 109.20, 108.85 and 108.60. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 109.70.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. GOLD has swung below a number of key support levels, suggesting that the recent uptrend may now be over. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the lack of buying momentum. Price action may be forming a head and shoulder pattern, suggesting a potential bearish reversal.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1557, 1579 and 1599.

 

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