TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 7, 2020


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD continues to be bearish and has found support around 0.6895. The moving averages continue to be bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.6925. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6895, 0.6865 and 0.6840.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. Australian building approvals will be released at 0030 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP has been bearish. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all suggesting that EURGBP could start down-trending.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8540, 0.8560 and 0.8585. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.8480 and 0.8450.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1110, 1.1130, 1.1205 and 1.1240.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has become indecisive and has formed a range at 1.3055-1.3265. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.3315 and 1.3415. A break to the downside could find support around 1.2915.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD has become indecisive. Price has formed a tight horizontal channel at 0.6645-0.6675. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the NZDUSD may move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages. A break to the downside may find support around 0.6620 and 0.6555.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been reversing off the shorter-term moving average and also finding support around 1.2960. Price has been down-trending but is currently moving within a horizontal channel at 1.2960-1.3005. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the USDCAD could move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Opportunities to go short may continue to exist around the moving averages.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDCHF has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9735 and 0.9775. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 0.9650.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the 108.50 horizontal level and the 38.2% Fib level. The USDJPY is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are starting to tight and move sideways, signalling that price could struggle to swing lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 108.50, 108.85 and 109.20. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 107.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GOLD has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend support area. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1579.

 

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