TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 18, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the trend support area and then found resistance around 0.6855. AUDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages have crossed bearish though, signalling that price may struggle to swing higher.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6815 and 0.6800. A bullish move may find resistance around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6855, 0.6860, 0.6865 and 0.6900.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

Australian employment and unemployment figures will be released at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish. EURGBP has swung above the moving averages and trend resistance area, suggesting that the recent downtrend is over. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish. Price is looking a little indecisive.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8375, 0.8395, 0.8455, 0.8515 and 0.8570.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The Conservative party have won a parliament majority, given hope that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal can now be agreed. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average. As also suggested, price has since been moving sideways and is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1050, 1.1105, 1.1170 and 1.1185.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has been finding support around 1.3085 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive but has a slight bearish direction. The moving averages confirm the downside – they have crossed bearish and are widening. The GBPUSD could attempt a move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2885, 1.2950, 1.3085, 1.3175, 1.3225, 1.3315 and 1.3415.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The Conservative party have won a parliament majority, given hope that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal can now be agreed. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A UK CPI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish, all signalling that the NZDUSD may attempt to move lower.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6575, 0.6610 and 0.6620. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6520 and 0.6505.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A New Zealand GDP figure will be released at 2145 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the trend resistance area. The USDCAD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are starting to move sideways and tighten, suggesting indecision – price could struggle to swing lower.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3180, 1.3200, 1.3225 and 1.3265. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3150 and 1.3120.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has swung below the horizontal channel support area. Price is below the recent consolidation and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the USDCHF may start down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9870, 0.9895 and 0.9910. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 0.9795 and the bearish channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that price could attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.45, 108.80, 108.85, 108.95, 109.25 and 109.70.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed again around 1479. GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling potential upside.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1473 and 1465.

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