TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 17, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average. Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and are about to cross bearish, signalling that upside momentum is weakening – an attempt to swing higher could fail.

Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6855, 0.6815 and 0.6800. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6865, 0.6900 and 0.6830.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP found resistance around 0.8395 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since moved higher. Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are becoming more bullish, suggesting that the EURGBP may struggle to swing lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8455 and 0.8500. A bearish move may find support around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8395, 0.8305 and 0.8285.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The Conservative party have won a parliament majority, given hope that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal can now be agreed. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the longer-term moving average. EURUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Long opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal level at 1.1105. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1155 and 1.1185.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is currently finding support around 1.3275 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GBPUSD has been up-trending. Price is below the moving averages though and the moving averages are becoming bearish, all signalling that upside momentum is weakening – GBPUSD may fail to swing higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3085, 1.3175, 1.3225, 1.3315, 1.3415 and 1.3490.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The Conservative party have won a parliament majority, given hope that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal can now be agreed. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD has failed to swing higher and is now ranging between the horizontal support at 0.6575 and the recent highs at 0.6620. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tightening and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6520 and 0.6505. If NZDUSD breaks to the upside, price could start up-trending again.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3200 and 1.3225. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3165, 1.3155 and 1.3120.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continues to find support around the horizontal channel support area. USDCHF is indecisive and is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.9815-0.9870. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.9895 and 0.9910.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to find resistance around 109.70 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDJPY is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.95, 109.25 and 109.70. If price moves above 109.70, the USDJPY may attempt a bullish move higher.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding resistance around 1479. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are currently bullish though, suggesting that GOLD could attempt a bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1459, 1465, 1473, 1479 and 1484.

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