TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 16, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the longer-term moving averages and the 50.0% Fib level. AUDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price may attempt to swing higher.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6860 and 0.6855. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 0.6930.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1445 UTC today. Australian monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and 50.0% Fib level (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price could swing lower.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8395 and 0.8455. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 0.8285.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The Conservative party have won a parliament majority, given hope that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal can now be agreed. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

French and German PMI figures will be released at 0815 and 0830 UTC today. UK PMI figures will be released at 0930 UTC. UK bank stress test results will be announced at 1600 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed off the longer-term moving average. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1110 and 1.1050. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1145 and 1.1185.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

French and German PMI figures will be released at 0815 and 0830 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1445 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3315, 1.3225, 1.3175 and 1.3105. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent highs at 1.3490.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The Conservative party have won a parliament majority, given hope that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal can now be agreed. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

UK PMI figures will be released at 0930 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1445 UTC. UK bank stress test results will be announced at 1600 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the NZDUSD may attempt to move higher and continue it’s upside direction.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6570, 0.6520 and 0.6505. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.6620.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1445 UTC today. New Zealand business confidence is at 0000 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the longer-term moving average and trend resistance area and has since swung lower. USDCAD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3155, 1.3165, 1.3200 and 1.3225.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1445 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been finding support around the horizontal channel support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and move/range within a horizontal channel at 0.9815-0.9870. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.9895, 0.9910, 0.9960 and 0.9980.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1445 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY reversed around 109.70. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are bullish and widening though, suggesting that the USDJPY could break to the upside of the consolidation and move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.95, 109.25 and 109.70.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1445 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around 1479 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1459, 1465, 1473, 1479 and 1484.

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