TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 12, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bullish and has swung higher. AUDUSD is above the recent bearish channel and a number of resistance levels, all suggesting that price may start up-trending.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6860 and 0.6855. Price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.6890.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the range resistance area. EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between 0.8395 and 0.8455.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 0.8500, 0.8515 and 0.8530.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official rate at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC. UK parliamentary elections will take place today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

EURUSD has been bullish. Price has swung above the recent consolidation area, suggesting that EURUSD may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they have crossed bullish and are widening.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.1110 and 1.1090.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official rate at 1245 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1330 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GBPUSD reversed around the range support area. Price has since swung above the range resistance area, signalling that GBPUSD could start up-trending again.

Buying opportunities may exist around the potential bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3205 and 1.3105. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

UK parliamentary elections will take place today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price reversed around 0.6520 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). NZDUSD has moved above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are becoming bullish, all signalling that price may start up-trending.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6570 and 0.6520.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDCAD has been finding support around 1.3165 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed lower swing highs and the moving averages have crossed bearish, signalling that the USDCAD could attempt a bearish move lower.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3225. Price could continue to find support around 1.3160.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1730 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the trend resistance area and the shorter-term moving average. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9835, 0.9860, 0.6865, 0.9895 and 0.9910.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The SNB will release a monetary policy assessment at 0830 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 0900 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY has reversed around 108.45 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 108.30, 108.45, 108.80, 108.95 and 109.35.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off 1479. GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1453, 1459, 1473, 1479 and 1484.

 

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