TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 11, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.6800. Price is below the recent consolidation area and price action has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that the AUDUSD could start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6850 and 0.6860. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6815, 0.6800, 0.6790 and 0.6780.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US CPI figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The FOMC will release a statement and projections and announce the official funds rate at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

The EURGBP has found resistance around 0.8450 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has become indecisive and is ranging between the recent lows at 0.8395 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8455. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.8500, 0.8515 and 0.8530.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.0990, 1.1025, 1.1050, 1.1090 and 1.1110. If the EURUSD closes above 1.1110, price could attempt a bullish move higher.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US CPI figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The FOMC will release a statement and projections and announce the official funds rate at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the range resistance area and also support around the range support area. The GBPUSD broke to the upside of the range but soon re-entered the consolidation area. Price is now ranging between 1.3100 and 1.3205. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the trend support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US CPI figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The FOMC will release a statement and projections and announce the official funds rate at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD has reversed off the horizontal level at 0.6520 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6570, 0.6520 and 0.6505.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

US CPI figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The FOMC will release a statement and projections and announce the official funds rate at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

USDCAD continues to lack trend momentum and be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3165, 1.3205, 1.3225, 1.3265 and 1.3325.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

US CPI figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The FOMC will release a statement and projections and announce the official funds rate at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been bearish. USDCHF is below the recent consolidation area, signalling that price could start down-trending again. The moving averages have crossed bearish – confirming the potential downside.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9860, 0.9865, 0.9895, 0.9910 and 0.9930.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

US CPI figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The FOMC will release a statement and projections and announce the official funds rate at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

Just like other USD pairs, USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 108.45-108.95. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 108.30. A break to the upside may find resistance around 109.35 and 109.40.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

US CPI figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today. The FOMC will release a statement and projections and announce the official funds rate at 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average. Price continues to be indecisive.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1453, 1459, 1473 and 1479.

 

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