TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 04, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the recent highs at 0.6860. AUDUSD has since been bearish. Price is looking indecisive again and is lacking trend direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6760, 0.6780, 0.6790, 0.6800, 0.6830 and 0.6860.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC. Australian retail sales and trade balance figures will be released at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8500, 0.8515, 0.8530, 0.8540, 0.8570, 0.8580 and 0.8585.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has continued to find resistance around 1.1090 and be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1030, 1.1040, 1.1055 and 1.1090. If price closes above 1.1090, EURUSD may attempt a bullish move higher.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD closed above 1.2970 and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. GBPUSD is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2965 and 1.2950. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 1.3010.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continued to move higher and has formed a new swing high. The NZDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous resistance at 0.6435. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 0.6530.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC. The Governor of the RBNZ will speak at 0000 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

Price has reversed around 1.3325 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3260-1.3325.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.3205.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC. The BOC will announce the official rate and release a rate statement at the same time.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCHF has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that USDCHF may start down-trending.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9875, 0.9895, 0.9915 and 0.9930.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 108.25, 108.45, 108.70, 108.80, 109.10, 109.25 and 109.35.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish. GOLD has swung above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that price may start up-trending.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1478, 1474, 1464 and 1462. An attempt to swing higher may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1484.

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