TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 02, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal support at 0.6760. AUDUSD has been down-trending but is now looking a little indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and also moving sideways. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 0.6760-0.6780.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6790, 0.6800 and 0.6830.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today. The RBA will announce the official cash rate and release a rate statement at 0330 UTC.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish but are starting to tighten, signalling that price could struggle to swing lower.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8530, 0.8540, 0.8545 and 0.8580. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the recent swing low at 0.8500 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has reversed around 1.1025. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.0990, 1.0995, 1.1030, 1.1040 and 1.1055.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today. A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support and resistance areas and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2820, 1.2835, 1.2885, 1.2905, 1.2945 and 1.2970.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price closed above the channel resistance area and has since been bullish. The NZDUSD is now up-trending. The moving averages are becoming bullish and price action has formed a bullish channel – confirming the upside.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6435, 0.6410 and 0.6395. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price has reversed around the diagonal resistance area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3260, 1.3315 and 1.3325.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bullish and has formed a swing higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9995, 0.9980 and 0.9960. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.0015.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY has swung higher and has been bullish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 109.60, 109.40, 109.35, 109.25 and 109.10.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be announced at 1500 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are tight – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1449, 1453, 1462, 1464, 1474 and 1478.

 

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